Supply Chain Resilience: Volatility Is an Optionality Problem (with Johnnie R. Moore, Jr.)

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Supply Chain Resilience: Volatility Is an Optionality Problem (with Johnnie R. Moore, Jr.)

Episode Summary

Johnnie R. Moore, Jr. of The JR Moore Group on supply chain resilience, Bestshoring, and AI adoption in logistics: why volatility is an optionality problem rather than a forecasting problem, and why applying AI to a broken process only exponentiates the problems you already have. The conversation covers why standardized processes are the floor for any AI deployment, how to build governance that empowers people to act before a crisis instead of during one, why trust in AI should be built gradually like testing a flimsy lawn chair, and how the "watermelon effect" leaves companies hitting every KPI while their customers stay unhappy.

🎧 Episode Highlights

Bestshoring focuses on where logistics work and processes live, not where goods are sourced.

AI makes options cheaper and faster to exercise, but only on top of standardized processes.

Governance should be built around optionality, with signals and triggers embedded in the process.

Technology isn't the limitation; adoption and empowerment are.

Governance controls speed, while optionality lets you steer around obstacles when volatility strikes.

Test AI gradually, the way you'd test a flimsy chair before putting your full weight on it.

The "watermelon effect": every metric looks green but the customer is still unhappy.

If you don't know your stuff, you can't check AI.

Agentic AI: higher cost if wrong, enormous benefits if right.

Assess the workforce you have and acquire the right talent; AI supports that talent, not the other way around.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Standardized, documented processes are the foundation for any successful use of AI. Applying AI to a broken or unclear process doesn't fix it; it multiplies the problems that already exist.
The best way to build trust in AI is to start with customer outcomes, work backward to the most critical decisions, and test AI on those decisions gradually. Every KPI should tie to a real customer result, because green metrics mean little if the customer isn't satisfied.
AI is an enabler, not a replacement for knowing your business. Experienced people are needed to catch the small errors in AI's reasoning, and organizations that invest in their talent alongside the technology will benefit most.

🧭 Frameworks Worth Saving

Treat volatility as an optionality problem, not a forecasting problem. Instead of trying to predict the next tariff or disruption, build standard processes, clear roles, and governance that give you multiple ways to respond when it hits.
Plan continuity in tiers, not at 100%. Prioritize processes by importance and set recovery targets for each, such as 20% back online in 24 hours and 50% in 48 hours, rather than paying for full continuity across the board.
Design where work lives, who does it, and how it's organized. Bestshoring moves the question from where goods are sourced to where logistics work and processes sit, with governance as the dimension that carries the most weight.

💬 Notable Quotes

Without a customer, you're not a company.

Johnnie R. Moore, Jr.

AI is an enabler. It is not the solution. It is not the ultimate decision maker. It is not the fix-it-all. It is not.

Johnnie R. Moore, Jr.

AI is gonna support the talent that you have. And if it's not in that order, I think we might be doing something wrong.

Johnnie R. Moore, Jr.

👤 About The Guest

Johnnie R. Moore, Jr., The JR Moore Group

Johnnie R. Moore, Jr. is the Founder and CEO of The JR Moore Group, Inc. He brings 38 years in logistics and supply chain, 28 of them at DHL Global Forwarding, where he scaled the shared services for the Americas to 1,300 FTEs and developed global frameworks adopted across a network of nearly 6,000 employees worldwide. He now does that work for freight forwarders, 3PLs, 4PLs, and organizations with large, complex logistics operations. He serves as VP of Membership of the CSCMP South Florida Roundtable.

Website: https://thejrmooregroup.com/

🎙️ About The Host

Derek Aranda

Derek Aranda spent over two decades as a global executive operating across commercial, supply chain, and digital transformation roles at scale. That span across the full value chain shapes his lens: the decisions, incentives, trust, economics, and governance that determine whether technology actually works inside real supply chains. On Supply ChAInge, he pressure-tests the autonomous future and helps leaders shape the framework to build it on their own terms.

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Produced by Speakerbox Media.